A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
